COP31: two days in Antalya and the WWF report on the IBEX35

Marcio Viegas, founder and managing director of SUST4IN · Antalya, 11 November 2026

Key facts

• Start: agendas adopted without a fight. Meanwhile, the presidency is preparing a short final decision, perhaps an “Antalya Declaration”.
• Context: October 2026 was the warmest on record (1.75 °C above pre-industrial levels), and climate finance is falling: 5.1 billion dollars less for the Green Climate Fund.
• Negotiations: slow progress on mitigation, adaptation, finance and just transition, with the usual positions.
• Electrification: “35 by 35” gains support from Australia, Germany, Norway, Ethiopia and Brazil. The EU and the UK have not explicitly endorsed it.
• IBEX35: the WWF Spain report prepared by Marcio Viegas finds an average gap of 13 points between compliance (81) and ambition (67).

I am writing from Antalya, on the third day of COP31, with world leaders now in town. This is my summary of the first two days, with my video from day one. It also covers the report that WWF Spain published yesterday on the climate transition plans of the IBEX35, with the results of the study I prepared as a researcher.

Video summary of COP31 day one (3 minutes, in Spanish)

COP31: the first two days

COP31 opened on Monday with its agendas adopted without a fight. However, African countries did not get their items on adaptation finance and trade. Meanwhile, the presidency is preparing a short final decision, perhaps an “Antalya Declaration”, which Russia and the Arab Group are already questioning.

The context is tough. This is the first COP at which we admit that the world will exceed 1.5 °C: October was the warmest month on record, according to Copernicus. Climate finance is also falling: cuts by the UK and the United States take 5.1 billion dollars away from the Green Climate Fund in a single year.

However, negotiations are moving slowly, with the usual positions:

• Mitigation: support for extending the work programme, but no agreement on until when.
• Adaptation: agreement on the method for the indicators, but not on who develops them.
• Finance: the G77 and China want to limit the new programme to the obligations of developed countries; the EU rejects this.
• Just transition: convergence on a two-tier mechanism.

Electrification is the star. “35 by 35” (35% electricity in final energy consumption by 2035) already has the support of Australia, Germany, Norway, Ethiopia and Brazil, while the EU and the UK have not explicitly endorsed it. Fossil fuels, however, remain outside the formal negotiations: Brazil presented its roadmap on the same day that Erdoğan was celebrating new oil wells.

Leading the transition: the WWF report on the IBEX35

Yesterday, on the second day of COP31, WWF Spain published “Liderar la transición: credibilidad y ambición en los planes de transición climática del IBEX35” (Leading the transition: credibility and ambition in the climate transition plans of the IBEX35). It presents the results of the study that Marcio Viegas carried out as a researcher for WWF Spain during 2026. The report is in Spanish.

IBEX35 companies score an average of 81 out of 100 on compliance with ESRS E1-1, the European disclosure requirement for climate transition plans. On ambition and credibility, however, measured with the WWF AMBIC framework (31 criteria in 8 dimensions), they score 67. As a result, the average gap is 13 points, and it appears in every company.

Sector	Ambition	Compliance	Gap
Banking and insurance	67	82	−15
Energy and industry	70	84	−13
Transport, infrastructure and other sectors	66	79	−13
IBEX35	67	81	−13

Almost all companies have climate targets. However, many do not explain which investments (CapEx and OpEx) will deliver them. In addition, 33 of the 34 companies analysed do not assess whether their political influence (lobbying) is consistent with the 1.5 °C goal.

In short, it is the same idea that keeps coming up in Antalya: the transition plan must become an investment plan. Our summary of the report, with WWF‘s recommendations for each stakeholder group, links to the full report.

COP31: the negotiations in detail

Pre-sessional consultations went on until the early hours of Monday. African countries wanted their own items on tripling adaptation finance, the Green Climate Fund and trade, and none made it. Similarly, Nepal, after a glacier collapse, did not get its item on mountains; they will be discussed in consultations and in dialogues until 2028.

The COP31 President, Murat Kurum, described it as an “implementation” summit and appealed to “imece”, the Turkish tradition of mutual help. Chris Bowen, President of Negotiations, announced a short final decision (a “cover decision”, perhaps an “Antalya Declaration”) that will not duplicate the negotiations: the presidency will present a summary on Friday 13 and accept written input until Saturday 14. However, Russia asked how a decision can be agreed without an agenda item to support it, and the Arab Group rejects any mention of the COP30 roadmaps or the Action Agenda.

“At this COP we are doing things differently”, announced Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). And yet some things remain exactly the same, such as hours-long queues for accreditation and delayed plenaries. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) estimates that, from January to September, the average temperature was 1.47 °C above pre-industrial levels. This is the first COP at which we admit that the world will exceed 1.5 °C: October 2026 was the warmest on record, 1.75 °C above pre-industrial levels, and 2026 will be the second year, after 2024, to exceed that threshold, according to Copernicus. Stiell also warned that the Secretariat is running out of cash.

What is being negotiated

Our summary of the state of play up to Tuesday:

Topic	What is at stake	First two days
Mitigation	The mitigation work programme ends in 2026. The EU wants to extend it to 2040.	Broad support for continuing, with no agreement on until when: 2030, 2040 or no fixed date. Switzerland proposes a standing committee; however, the Arab Group objects.
Adaptation	The Global Goal on Adaptation starts from scratch, with no text from Bonn, and its indicators are still pending.	Agreement to create a technical group and a political process, and disagreement on their composition and timing. Tripling adaptation finance is off the agenda.
Finance	New work programme on Article 9 and the 1.3 trillion dollar roadmap.	The G77 and China want to limit it to the obligations of developed countries (Article 9.1); the EU, to climate finance in general. There is also no agreement on whether the 100 billion goal was met.
Carbon markets (Article 6)	Moving from rulebook to implementation: authorisations, registries and how to fund the infrastructure.	Three funding options: core budget, share of proceeds or user fees. The EU and the UK prefer share of proceeds; the African Group, by contrast, a trust fund.
Just transition	Making the mechanism created in Belém operational.	Convergence on two tiers: a political body and a technical arm. Japan does not want new bodies and the Environmental Integrity Group does not want a new fund.
Loss and damage	Guidance to the new fund.	119 countries call for 2.8 billion dollars However, the EU, the UK and Canada consider guidance premature.
Trade	No formal negotiation. China prioritises it and there will be friction with the EU CBAM.	Off the agenda: it will be discussed in the annual dialogues until 2028.

On the ground

Logistics are complicated: three-hour journeys, delegates packed like sardines in crowded trams and meeting rooms waiting for facilitators stuck in traffic. Today, with the Leaders’ Summit, transport has been cut back even further for security reasons.

The presidency gathered heads of delegation to discuss the content of the final decision, and some asked why it is taken for granted that there will be one. First, however, it will have to agree on its purpose, and then on its content.

On finance, one observer described the trend as “clearly the wrong one”. Cuts by the UK and the United States to the Green Climate Fund mean 5.1 billion dollars less in a single year (about 4.5 billion euros). Moreover, the Global Environment Facility has had the lowest replenishment in its history and official development assistance is falling. Meanwhile, on mitigation and adaptation there was déjà vu, with the usual positions. Finally, by the end of the day, like the traffic, the negotiations started to move.

“35 by 35”: who is signing up

Specifically, the pledge aims to raise electricity from 23% to 35% of final energy consumption by 2035. Tuesday’s ministerial forum produced this support:

• Supporters: Australia (“early and enthusiastic signatory”), Germany (“wholeheartedly”), Norway, Ethiopia (COP32 presidency), Pakistan, Palau and Brazil. China, “tacitly”.
• With caveats: Fiji welcomes it, but warns of the risks without finance. Mukhtar Babayev, COP29 President: “Ambition without implementation support will not deliver the transformation we seek”.
• No explicit support: the EU and the UK, which advocate “clean” electrification.

For example, Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), believes the goal sends an “unequivocal signal” to investors: “electricity is the future”. The IEA will lead its tracking, while Climate Action Tracker estimates that, under current policies, electricity would only reach 28%. Bowen wants to include it in the final decision, although some fossil fuel producers will oppose any mention of clean sources.

Outside the negotiations

On Tuesday, energy and transport day, a 20% electricity target for shipping by 2035 was launched, together with an Australia-led declaration to double the number of homes with solar panels to 300 million by 2030. The Powering Past Coal Alliance presented partnerships to mobilise more than 23 billion dollars (about 20.5 billion euros) for the coal phase-out in ten countries, including Indonesia, Vietnam, India and South Africa.

The Brazilian COP30 presidency presented its roadmap for transitioning away from fossil fuels, and António Guterres called for moving “from discussing the transition to organising, financing and delivering it”. At the same time, the host country’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, celebrated on X the new Gabar wells, which will increase oil production by 30%, to more than 100,000 barrels a day in the second half of 2027.

Business

At the opening plenary, business organisations (BINGO, in UN jargon) supported clean electrification and warned that “finance will be the engine of any credible transformation”. Similarly, John Denton, Secretary General of the ICC, summed it up: “set the conditions and business can invest, build and deliver”. More than 180 companies, SUST4IN among them, have signed “Seizing the Electric Advantage”, the We Mean Business Coalition statement (list of supporters). In addition, the Spanish Green Growth Group points out that the EU spent more than 390 billion euros on fossil fuel imports in 2025.

I explain it in my video summary of day one (3 minutes, in Spanish): for companies, the transition plan becomes an investment plan, without forgetting electrification and adaptation.

Meanwhile, 42 heads of state and government arrive today for the Leaders’ Summit, which continues tomorrow. Among the first speakers are Lula, Ursula von der Leyen, Chinese Vice Premier Han Zheng and Mia Mottley, Prime Minister of Barbados.

Our probability table, two days on

We review the outcomes we expected before the summit:

Outcome	Our probability	What has happened
Negotiated package adopted by consensus	High	Agendas adopted without blockage. The presidency is preparing a short decision, although Russia and the Arab Group are already raising objections.
“35 by 35” electrification pledge	High, as a voluntary coalition	Supported by Australia, Germany, Norway, Ethiopia, Pakistan and Brazil. However, the EU and the UK, not yet explicitly.
Adaptation indicators and a path to triple adaptation finance	Medium	Agreement on the working method for the indicators. However, tripling finance has no agenda item of its own.
Operational just transition mechanism	Medium	Convergence on a two-tier structure; scope and funding remain open.
New quantified finance	Low	In fact, climate finance is falling: 5.1 billion dollars less for the Green Climate Fund in one year.
Fossil fuel roadmap in the formal decision	Very low	Instead, it is happening outside: Brazil’s roadmap and the Santa Marta process, whose second conference will be chaired by Ireland and Tuvalu. Brazil presented its non-binding roadmap in Antalya.

Frequently asked questions

What happened in the first two days of COP31?

The agendas were adopted without blockage and the negotiations are moving slowly, with the usual positions. In addition, the presidency is preparing a short final decision, perhaps an “Antalya Declaration”.

What is the “35 by 35” pledge?

It aims to raise electricity from 23% to 35% of final energy consumption by 2035. Australia, Germany, Norway, Ethiopia, Pakistan, Palau and Brazil support it, and the IEA will track it.

Will there be a roadmap to move away from fossil fuels?

Not in the formal negotiations. However, the COP30 Presidency presented a non-binding roadmap in Antalya, and the Santa Marta process continues outside the UNFCCC.

What does the WWF report say about the IBEX35?

IBEX35 companies score 81 out of 100 on compliance with ESRS E1-1 and 67 on ambition. Therefore, the average gap is 13 points. In addition, 33 of the 34 companies analysed do not assess whether their lobbying is consistent with 1.5 °C.

What does it mean for companies?

The transition plan becomes an investment plan. For example, companies need to explain which CapEx and OpEx will deliver their targets, with electrification and adaptation at the centre.

Responsible AI: Generative artificial intelligence tools (Claude) were used to support the research, structuring, preliminary drafting and synthesis of this article. All final content has been reviewed, adapted and validated by the SUST4IN team, which takes editorial responsibility for its accuracy and relevance.